A drink equals how many cigarettes? Equating mortality risks from alcohol and tobacco use in Canada.

Objective: To quantify and communicate risk equivalencies for alcohol-and tobacco-attributable mortality by comparing per standard drinks consumed to per number of cigarettes smoked in Canada. Methods: Alcohol-and tobacco-attributable premature deaths (≤75 years of age) and years of life lost (YLL) were estimated using a lifetime risk modeling approach. Alcohol-attributable death statistics were obtained from the 2023 Canadian Guidance on Alcohol and Health data source. Tobacco-attributable death statistics were derived from the Mortality Population Risk Tool (MPoRT) model. Results: The risk of alcohol use on premature death and YLL increased non-linearly with the number of drinks consumed, while the risk for tobacco use on these two measures increased linearly with the number of cigarettes smoked. Males who consumed 5 drinks/day-a standard drink contains 13.45 grams of alcohol in Canada-had an equivalent risk as smoking 4.9 cigarettes/day (when modeling for premature death) and 5.1 cigarettes/day (when modeling for YLL). Females who consumed 5 drinks/day experienced an equivalent risk as smoking 4.2 cigarettes/day for premature deaths and YLL. At all levels of alcohol consumption females and males who consumed <5 drinks/day have less risks from consuming a standard drink than from smoking a cigarette. For males who consumed 5 drinks/day, the increased risks of death from per drink consumed and per cigarette smoked were equal. Conclusion: Risk equivalencies comparing alcohol use to tobacco use could help people who drink improve their knowledge and understanding of the mortality risks associated with increased number of drinks consumed per day.

Distributions of alcohol use and alcohol-caused death and disability in Canada: Defining alcohol harm density functions and new perspectives on the prevention paradox.

AIMS: The aims of this study were to examine the distribution of alcohol use and to define 'harm density functions' representing distributions of alcohol-caused health harm in Canada, by sex, towards better understanding which groups of drinkers experience the highest aggregate harms. DESIGN: This was an epidemiological modeling study using survey and administrative data on alcohol exposure, death and disability and risk relationships from epidemiological meta-analyses. SETTING: This work took place in Canada, 2019. PARTICIPANTS: Canadians aged 15 years or older participated. MEASUREMENTS: Measures included modeled life-time mean daily alcohol use in grams of pure alcohol (ethanol) per day, alcohol-caused deaths and alcohol-caused disability-adjusted life-years. FINDINGS: As a life-time average, more than half of Canadians aged 15+ (62.8% females, 46.9% males) use fewer than 10 g of pure alcohol per day (g/day). By volume, the top 10% of the population consume 45.9% of the total ethanol among males and 47.1% of the total ethanol among females. The remaining 90% of the population experience a slim majority of alcohol-caused deaths (males 55.3%, females 46.9%). Alcohol harm density functions compose the size of the using population and the risk experienced at each volume level to show that the population-level harm experienced is highest for males at 25 g/day and females at 13 g/day. CONCLUSIONS: Almost 50% of alcohol use in Canada is concentrated among the highest 10% of drinkers, but more than half of the alcohol-caused deaths in Canada in 2019 were experienced by the bottom 90% of the population by average volume, providing evidence for the prevention paradox. New alcohol harm density functions provide insight into the aggregate health harm experienced across the mean alcohol use spectrum and may therefore be used to help determine where alcohol policies should be targeted for highest efficacy.

Why do only some cohort studies find health benefits from low volume alcohol use? A systematic review and meta-analysis of study characteristics that may bias mortality risk estimates.

OBJECTIVE: Assumptions about alcohol's health benefits profoundly influence global disease burden estimates and drinking guidelines. Utilising theory and evidence, we identify and test study characteristics that may bias estimates of all-cause mortality risk associated with low volume drinking. METHOD: We identified 107 longitudinal studies by systematic review with 724 estimates of association between alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality for 4,838,825 participants with 425,564 recorded deaths. "Higher quality" studies had a mean cohort age of ≤55 years, followed-up beyond 55 years, and excluded former and occasional drinkers from abstainer reference groups. "Low volume" alcohol use was defined as between one drink per week (>1.30g ethanol/day) and two drinks per day (<25g ethanol/day). Mixed linear regression was used to model relative risks (RRs) of mortality for subgroups of higher versus lower quality studies. RESULTS: As predicted, studies with younger cohorts and separating former and occasional drinkers from abstainers estimated similar mortality risk for low volume drinkers (RR=0.98, 0.87-1.11) as abstainers. Studies not meeting these quality criteria estimated significantly lower risk for low volume drinkers (RR=0.84, 0.79-0.89). In exploratory analyses, studies controlling for smoking and/or socio-economic status had significantly reduced mortality risks for low volume drinkers. However, mean RR estimates for low volume drinkers in non-smoking cohorts were above 1.0 (RR=1.16, 0.91-1.41). CONCLUSIONS: Studies with lifetime selection biases may create misleading positive health associations. These biases pervade the field of alcohol epidemiology and can confuse communications about health risks. Future research should investigate whether smoking status mediates, moderates or confounds alcohol-mortality risk relationships.

New perspectives on how to formulate alcohol drinking guidelines.

BACKGROUND: Low-Risk Alcohol Drinking Guidelines (LRDGs) aim to reduce the harms caused by alcohol. However, considerable discrepancies exist in the 'low-risk' thresholds employed by different countries. ARGUMENT/ANALYSIS: Drawing upon Canada's LRDGs update process, the current paper offers the following propositions for debate regarding the establishment of 'low-risk' thresholds in national guidelines: (1) as an indicator of health loss, years of life lost (YLL) has several advantages that could make it more suitable for setting guidelines than deaths, premature deaths or disability adjusted years of life (DALYs) lost. (2) Presenting age-specific guidelines may not be the most appropriate way of providing LRDGs. (3) Given past overemphasis on the so-called protective effects of alcohol on health, presenting cause-specific guidelines may not be appropriate compared with a 'whole health' effect derived from a weighted composite risk function comprising conditions that are causally related to alcohol consumption. (4) To help people reduce their alcohol use, presenting different risk zones associated with alcohol consumption instead of a single low risk threshold may be advantageous. CONCLUSIONS: National LRDGs should be based on years of life lost and should be neither age-specific nor cause-specific. We recommend using risk zones rather than a single drinking threshold to help people assess their own risk and encourage the adoption of behaviours with positive health impacts across the alcohol use spectrum.

Translating the lived experience of illicit drinkers into program guidance for cannabis substitution: Experiences from the Canadian Managed Alcohol Program Study.

A small but growing body of research has suggested the potential for cannabis substitution to support Managed Alcohol Program (MAP) service users to reduce acute and chronic alcohol-related harms. In 2022, researchers from the Canadian Managed Alcohol Program Study (CMAPS) noted a dearth of accessible, alcohol-specific educational resources to support service users and program staff to implement cannabis substitution pilots at several MAP sites in Canada. In this essay, we draw on over 10-years of collaboration between CMAPS, and organizations of people with lived experience (the Eastside Illicit Drinkers Group for Education (EIDGE) and SOLID Victoria) to describe our experiences co-creating cannabis education resources where none existed to support MAP sites interested in beginning to provide cannabis to participants. The research team relied on the unique lived experiences and informal cannabis-related harm reduction strategies described by EIDGE and SOLID members to create cannabis education resources that were accurate and relevant to MAP sites. EIDGE was familiar with creating peer-oriented educational resources and convened meetings and focus groups to engage peers. CMAPS research team members created standard cannabis unit equivalencies to support program delivery, and clinical advisors ensured that the stated risks and benefits of cannabis substitution, as well as tapering guidance for withdrawal management, were safe and feasible. The collaboration ultimately produced tailored client-facing and provider-facing resources. Our experience demonstrates that the lived expertise of drinkers can play an integral role in creating alcohol harm reduction informational materials, specifically those related to cannabis substitution, when combined with data from rigorous, community-based programs of research like CMAPS. We close by listing additional considerations for cannabis substitution program design for MAP settings emerging from this process of collaboration between illicit drinkers, service providers, clinicians, and researchers for consideration by other programs.

A systematic review of relative risks for the relationship between chronic alcohol use and the occurrence of disease.

Alcohol use is causally linked to the development of and mortality from numerous diseases. The aim of this study is to provide an update to a previous systematic review of meta-analyses that quantify the sex-specific dose-response risk relationships between chronic alcohol use and disease occurrence and/or mortality. An updated systematic search of multiple databases was performed in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses criteria to identify meta-analyses published from January 1, 2017, to March 8, 2021, which quantified the risk relationships between chronic alcohol use and the risk of disease occurrence and/or mortality. This systematic review was not preregistered. The comparator was people who have never consumed at least one standard drink of alcohol. Measurements included relative risks, odds ratios, and hazard ratios of disease occurrence and/or mortality based on long-term alcohol intake measured in grams per day. The systematic search yielded 5953 articles, of which 14 were included in the narrative review. All diseases showed an increased risk of occurrence as alcohol use increased. At all doses examined, alcohol had a significant detrimental effect on tuberculosis, lower respiratory infections, oral cavity and pharyngeal cancers, esophageal cancer, colorectal cancer, liver cancer, laryngeal cancer, epilepsy, hypertension, liver cirrhosis, and pancreatitis (among men). For ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, and intracerebral hemorrhage, protective effects from low-dose chronic alcohol use among both men and women were observed. Low-dose alcohol consumption also had a protective effect for diabetes mellitus and pancreatitis among women (approximately to 50 g/day and 30 g/day, respectively). Alcohol use increases the risk of numerous infectious and noncommunicable diseases in a dose-response manner. Higher levels of alcohol use have a clear detrimental impact on health; however, at lower levels of use, alcohol can have both disease-specific protective and detrimental effects.

Why Canadians deserve to have mandated health and standard drink information labels on alcohol containers.

To reduce deaths, morbidity, and social problems from alcohol in Canada, a multi-dimensional robust response is needed, including a comprehensive alcohol control strategy at the provincial, territorial, and federal levels. Alcohol container labels with health and standard drink information are an essential component of this strategy. This commentary provides a rationale for the mandatory labelling of all alcohol products, summarizes Canadian initiatives to date to legislate alcohol container warning labels, and addresses myths and misconceptions about labels. Canadians deserve direct, accessible information about (1) the inherent health risks associated with alcohol consumption, (2) the number of standard drinks per container and volume of a standard drink, and (3) guidance for preventing or reducing consumption-related health risks. Enhanced health labels on alcohol containers are long overdue.

RéSUMé: Pour réduire les décès, la morbidité et les problèmes sociaux causés par l'alcool au Canada, il est nécessaire de réagir vigoureusement et de manière multidimensionnelle, notamment avec une stratégie globale de mesures de contrôle de la part des gouvernements provinciaux, territoriaux et fédéral. Des étiquettes sur les contenants d'alcool comportant des informations sur la santé et sur ce qui constitue un verre standard sont un élément important et essentiel de cette stratégie. Cette analyse explique les raisons justifiant l'étiquetage obligatoire de tous les produits alcoolisés, résume les initiatives à ce jour pour établir des lois sur les étiquettes de mise en garde sur les contenants d'alcool et réfute les mythes et les idées fausses sur ces étiquettes. Les Canadiens ont le droit d'être informés directement et de manière accessible sur 1) les risques pour leur santé inhérents à la consommation d'alcool, 2) le nombre de verres standards par contenant, et le volume d'un verre standard, et 3) les recommandations pour prévenir et réduire les risques liés à cette consommation. Nous n'avons que trop attendu pour apposer des étiquettes de mise en garde sur la santé sur les contenants d'alcool.

The impact of alcohol minimum unit pricing on people with experience of homelessness: Qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP) was introduced in Scotland in May 2018. Existing evidence suggests MUP can reduce alcohol consumption in the general population, but there is little research about its impact on vulnerable groups. This qualitative study explored experiences of MUP among people with experience of homelessness. METHODS: We conducted qualitative semi-structured interviews with a purposive sample of 46 people with current or recent experience of homelessness who were current drinkers when MUP was introduced. Participants (30 men and 16 women) were aged 21 to 73 years. Interviews focused on views and experiences of MUP. Data were analysed using thematic analysis. RESULTS: People with experience of homelessness were aware of MUP but it was accorded low priority in their hierarchy of concerns. Reported impacts varied. Some participants reduced their drinking, or moved away from drinking strong white cider, in line with policy intentions. Others were unaffected because the cost of their preferred drink (usually wine, vodka or beer) did not change substantially. A minority reported increased involvement in begging. Wider personal, relational and social factors also played an important role in responses to MUP. CONCLUSION: This is the first qualitative study to provide a detailed exploration of the impact of MUP among people with experience of homelessness. Our findings suggest that MUP worked as intended for some people with experience of homelessness, while a minority reported negative consequences. Our findings are of international significance to policymakers, emphasising the need to consider the impact of population level health policies on marginalised groups and the wider contextual factors that affect responses to policies within these groups. It is important to invest further in secure housing and appropriate support services and to implement and evaluate harm reduction initiatives such as managed alcohol programmes.

Estimates of compliance with Canada's guidelines for low and moderate risk alcohol consumption: the importance of adjustment for underreporting in self-report surveys.

Alcohol is a leading cause of premature mortality; however, awareness of this and of some specific risks is low. Survey-based estimates of drinking at risk levels suffer from substantial underreporting. We show that alcohol use reported in the 2019 Canadian Alcohol and Drug Survey (CADS) accounted for just 38.06% of recorded alcohol consumption. This contributes to alcohol's risks being minimized, by researchers, the public, and policymakers. The new Canada's Guidance on Alcohol and Health (CGAH) defines "moderate risk" as 3 to 6 drinks/week for men and women. Employing published methods to correct for underreporting in the CADS, we estimate that in 2019 the proportion of drinkers at moderate risk of long-term harm to be 50.43% (up from 23.34% without adjustment). We further estimate that, collectively, these drinkers consumed 90.17% of all drinks consumed that year. Similarly, 92.82% of drinks were consumed on days when upper limits for short-term harm (2 drinks/day) were exceeded (up from 65.02% without adjustment). We conclude that adjustments for underreporting of alcohol use in Canada need to be incorporated routinely in public health monitoring. This might help mitigate the widespread underestimation of risky alcohol use as well as the neglect of this public health issue by policymakers.

RéSUMé: L'alcool est l'une des principales causes de mortalité prématurée, mais trop peu de gens le savent et en connaissaient certains des risques particuliers. Or, les niveaux de risque de la consommation d'alcool estimés par les enquêtes sont considérablement inférieurs aux niveaux réels. Nous montrons que la consommation d'alcool déclarée dans l'Enquête canadienne sur l'alcool et les drogues (ECAD) de 2019 représentait à peine 38,06 % de la consommation d'alcool enregistrée. Cela contribue à la minimisation des risques de l'alcool par les chercheurs, le public et les responsables des politiques. Dans les nouveaux Repères canadiens sur l'alcool et la santé (RCAS), un « risque modéré ¼ est défini comme étant de 3 à 6 verres par semaine pour les hommes et les femmes. Selon nos propres estimations, fondées sur des méthodes publiées pour corriger la sous-déclaration dans l'ECAD, la proportion de buveurs courant un risque modéré de méfaits à long terme en 2019 s'élevait à 50,43 % (23,34 % sans ajustement). Nous estimons aussi que, collectivement, ces buveurs ont consommé 90,17 % de tous les verres consommés en 2019. De même, 92,82 % des verres ont été consommés les jours où la limite supérieure pour les méfaits à court terme (2 verres/jour) avait été dépassée (65,02 % sans ajustement). Nous concluons que les ajustements visant à corriger la sous-déclaration de la consommation d'alcool au Canada doivent être systématiquement intégrés dans la surveillance de la santé publique. Cela pourrait atténuer la sous-estimation généralisée de la consommation d'alcool posant un risque, ainsi que la négligence de ce problème de santé publique par les responsables des politiques.

The public-private decision for alcohol retail systems: Examining the economic, health, and social impacts of alternative systems in Finland.

Background: Organising alcohol retail systems with more or less public ownership has implications for health and the economy. The aim of the present study was to estimate the economic, health, and social impacts of alcohol use in Finland in 2018 (baseline), and in two alternative scenarios in which current partial public ownership of alcohol retail sales is either increased or fully privatised. Methods: Baseline alcohol-attributable harms and costs were estimated across five categories of death, disability, and criminal justice. Two alternate alcohol retail systems were defined as privately owned stores selling: (1) only low strength alcoholic beverages (public ownership scenario, similar to Sweden); or (2) all beverages (private ownership scenario). Policy analyses were conducted to estimate changes in alcohol use per capita. Health and economic impacts were modelled using administrative data and epidemiological modelling. Results: In Finland in 2018, alcohol use was estimated to be responsible for €1.51 billion (95% Uncertainty Estimates: €1.43 billion, €1.58 billion) in social cost, 3,846 deaths, and 270,652 criminal justice events. In the public ownership scenario, it was estimated that alcohol use would decline by 15.8% (11.8%, 19.7%) and social cost by €384.3 million (€189.5 million, €559.2 million). Full privatisation was associated with an increase in alcohol use of 9.0% (6.2%, 11.8%) and an increase in social cost of €289.7 million (€140.8 million, €439.5 million). Conclusion: The outcome from applying a novel analytical approach suggests that more public ownership of the alcohol retail system may lead to significant decreases in alcohol-caused death, disability, crime, and social costs. Conversely, full privatisation of the ownership model would lead to increased harm and costs.

Association Between Daily Alcohol Intake and Risk of All-Cause Mortality: A Systematic Review and Meta-analyses.

Importance: A previous meta-analysis of the association between alcohol use and all-cause mortality found no statistically significant reductions in mortality risk at low levels of consumption compared with lifetime nondrinkers. However, the risk estimates may have been affected by the number and quality of studies then available, especially those for women and younger cohorts. Objective: To investigate the association between alcohol use and all-cause mortality, and how sources of bias may change results. Data Sources: A systematic search of PubMed and Web of Science was performed to identify studies published between January 1980 and July 2021. Study Selection: Cohort studies were identified by systematic review to facilitate comparisons of studies with and without some degree of controls for biases affecting distinctions between abstainers and drinkers. The review identified 107 studies of alcohol use and all-cause mortality published from 1980 to July 2021. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Mixed linear regression models were used to model relative risks, first pooled for all studies and then stratified by cohort median age (<56 vs ≥56 years) and sex (male vs female). Data were analyzed from September 2021 to August 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: Relative risk estimates for the association between mean daily alcohol intake and all-cause mortality. Results: There were 724 risk estimates of all-cause mortality due to alcohol intake from the 107 cohort studies (4 838 825 participants and 425 564 deaths available) for the analysis. In models adjusting for potential confounding effects of sampling variation, former drinker bias, and other prespecified study-level quality criteria, the meta-analysis of all 107 included studies found no significantly reduced risk of all-cause mortality among occasional (>0 to <1.3 g of ethanol per day; relative risk [RR], 0.96; 95% CI, 0.86-1.06; P = .41) or low-volume drinkers (1.3-24.0 g per day; RR, 0.93; P = .07) compared with lifetime nondrinkers. In the fully adjusted model, there was a nonsignificantly increased risk of all-cause mortality among drinkers who drank 25 to 44 g per day (RR, 1.05; P = .28) and significantly increased risk for drinkers who drank 45 to 64 and 65 or more grams per day (RR, 1.19 and 1.35; P < .001). There were significantly larger risks of mortality among female drinkers compared with female lifetime nondrinkers (RR, 1.22; P = .03). Conclusions and Relevance: In this updated systematic review and meta-analysis, daily low or moderate alcohol intake was not significantly associated with all-cause mortality risk, while increased risk was evident at higher consumption levels, starting at lower levels for women than men.

Associations Between COVID-19 Alcohol Policy Restrictions and Alcohol Sales in British Columbia: Variation by Area-Based Deprivation Level.

OBJECTIVE: Government alcohol sales data were used to investigate associations between estimates of per capita age 15+ alcohol consumption, policy restrictiveness, and area-level deprivation. METHOD: We analyzed weekly consumption data (expressed as per capita age 15+ Canadian standard drinks [13.45 g of pure ethanol]) collected from all 89 local health areas in British Columbia, Canada, between April 2017 and April 2021. Our analyses were stratified by outlet type (total, on-premise, and off-premise). Our intervention was alcohol policy restrictiveness (operationalized by the Restrictiveness of Alcohol Policy Index), and our moderator was area-level deprivation (Canadian Index of Multiple Deprivation). The Restrictiveness of Alcohol Policy Index included hours of trading, the number of people permitted on site for on-premise venues, the proportion of outlets in operation, and the extent of permissible home delivery. RESULTS: Higher policy restrictiveness was associated with decreased consumption across all outlet types (ps < .001): when the most restrictive policies were implemented, consumption was reduced by 9% and 100% in off- and on-premise outlets, respectively. Area-based deprivation level modified the effect of policy restriction on per capita alcohol consumption (ps < .007): for total and off-premise consumption, the decrease was greatest among more economically deprived areas (ps < .001); for on-premise outlets, areas with a high proportion of racial and ethnic minorities increased their consumption (ps < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol-specific policy restrictions implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic were associated with reduced consumption. However, the magnitude and direction of change was moderated by area-based deprivation level, albeit inconsistently across various deprivation measures.

Alcohol minimum unit pricing and people experiencing homelessness: A qualitative study of stakeholders' perspectives and experiences.

INTRODUCTION: Minimum unit pricing (MUP) may reduce harmful drinking in the general population, but there is little evidence regarding its impact on marginalised groups. Our study is the first to explore the perceptions of MUP among stakeholders working with people experiencing homelessness following its introduction in Scotland in May 2018. METHODS: Qualitative semi-structured interviews were conducted with 41 professional stakeholders from statutory and third sector organisations across Scotland. We explored their views on MUP and its impact on people experiencing homelessness, service provision and implications for policy. Data were analysed using thematic analysis. RESULTS: Participants suggested that the introduction of MUP in Scotland had negligible if any discernible impact on people experiencing homelessness and services that support them. Most service providers felt insufficiently informed about MUP prior to its implementation. Participants reported that where consequences for these populations were evident, they were primarily anticipated although some groups were negatively affected. People experiencing homelessness have complex needs in addition to alcohol addiction, and changes in the way services work need to be considered in future MUP-related discussions. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that despite initial concerns about potential unintended consequences of MUP, many of these did not materialise to the levels anticipated. As a population-level health policy, MUP is likely to have little beneficial impact on people experiencing homelessness without the provision of support to address their alcohol use and complex needs. The additional needs of certain groups (e.g., people with no recourse to public funds) need to be considered.

Alcohol sales in Canadian liquor outlets as a predictor of subsequent COVID-19 infection rates: a time-series analysis.

AIMS: Government alcohol sales data were used to examine whether age 15+ per-capita alcohol consumption (PCAC) (i) changed during COVID-19 and (ii) predicted COVID-19 infections 2-5 weeks later. DESIGN: Interrupted time-series analyses were applied to panels of data before and after COVID-19 restrictions were introduced in Canada. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: The populations, aged 15+, of the provinces of Ontario (ON), British Columbia (BC) and Nova Scotia (NS), Canada. INTERVENTION: Expansion of home delivery options and hours of trading for liquor stores while restrictions on travel, social and economic activities were imposed by governments during COVID-19 from 17 March 2020 until 29 March 2021. MEASUREMENTS: Weekly estimates of (i) age 15+ PCAC using sales data supplied by provincial government alcohol distributors for liquor stores, bars and restaurants, (ii) stringency of public health measures assessed by the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) and (iii) new COVID-19 infections reported by PHAC. FINDINGS: PCAC increased by 7.10% (P = 0.013) during the pandemic versus previous years, with increased private liquor store sales partly offset by reduced bar/restaurant sales. Consumption was positively associated with stringency of public health measures. Weekly PCAC was positively associated with new COVID-19 infections 2 weeks later (+6.34% for a one drink/week increase, P < 0.001). Lagged associations with COVID-19 infections 2 or 3 weeks later were observed for PCAC from all sales channels, with larger effect sizes per standard drink/person/week increase for on-premise outlets (+77.27% week 2, P = 0.009) than government liquor stores (+6.49%, week 2, P < 0.001) or private liquor stores (+7.13%, week 4, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol consumption increased in three Canadian provinces during COVID-19 to degrees corresponding to the extent of the strictness of measures imposed to prevent viral spread. Increased consumption of alcohol was associated with increased COVID-19 infection rates 2 weeks later.

Estimating alcohol-attributable liver disease mortality: A comparison of methods.

INTRODUCTION: Alcohol is a leading contributor to liver disease, however, estimating the proportion of liver disease deaths attributable to alcohol use can be methodologically challenging. METHODS: We compared three approaches for estimating alcohol-attributable liver disease deaths (AALDD), using the USA as an example. One involved summing deaths from alcoholic liver disease and a proportion from unspecified cirrhosis (direct method); two used population attributable fraction (PAF) methodology, including one that adjusted for per capita alcohol sales. For PAFs, the 2011-2015 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and per capita sales from the Alcohol Epidemiologic Data System were used to derive alcohol consumption prevalence estimates at various levels (excessive alcohol use was defined by medium and high consumption levels). Prevalence estimates were used with relative risks from two meta-analyses, and PAFs were applied to the 2011-2015 average annual number of deaths from alcoholic cirrhosis and unspecified cirrhosis (using National Vital Statistics System data) to estimate AALDD. RESULTS: The number of AALDD was higher using the direct method (28 345 annually) than the PAF methods, but similar when alcohol prevalence was adjusted using per capita sales and all alcohol consumption levels were considered (e.g. 25 145 AALDD). Using the PAF method, disaggregating non-drinkers into lifetime abstainers and former drinkers to incorporate relative risks for former drinkers yielded higher AALDD estimates (e.g. 27 686) than methods with all non-drinkers combined. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Using PAF methods that adjust for per capita sales and model risks for former drinkers yield more complete and possibly more valid AALDD estimates.